OUTLOOK: In the Southland Conference, twelve teams will compete for one berth
to the NCAA Tournament. The regular season's only significance is that it
determines seeding for the league tournament. Much more so than most
conferences, the Southland figures to be one of parity in 2009-10. There
doesn't seem to be a dominant team in place, and even the squads expected to
finish near the bottom of the standings will have a chance to win on most
nights. There are no rookie coaches among the dozen schools, so all enter with
stability and some continuity. Teams such as Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Sam
Houston in the West Division figure to contend for the regular season
divisional crown. Texas-San Antonio and Texas-Arlington appear to be a step
behind, but it wouldn't be shocking to see either school finish on top.
Rounding out the West are Lamar and Texas State, two teams that lost many
starters from last season and may need some time to get into the groove.
Moving over to the East Division, Southeastern Louisiana is experienced and
poised for a title run, but Nicholls State represents stiff competition.
Northwestern State has some solid returnees in the fold, something that can't
be said for Stephen F. Austin. And moving down the list to McNeese State and
Central Arkansas, two teams that combined to go 8-24 in league play a year
ago, there is no room to go but up.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: EAST: 1. Southeastern Louisiana, 2. Nicholls State,
3. Northwestern State, 4. Stephen F. Austin, 5. McNeese State, 6. Central
Arkansas. WEST: 1. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 2. Sam Houston State, 3.UT-San
Antonio , 4. UT-Arlington, 5. Lamar, 6. Texas State
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
EAST:
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA - Why are we so high on the Lions, a team that finished
7-9 in conference a year ago? Well, start with the fact that four starters are
back for another go, and 6-9 senior center Patrick Sullivan may very well be
the best of the bunch. He scored 12.1 ppg last season to go along with 7.0
rpg, and the big man will need some of his teammates to emerge as viable
scoring threats. Chris Cypriani scored 8.7 ppg last season, and Brandon
Fortenberry added 8.3 ppg. If those two players can average double figures in
scoring, the Lions will benefit tremendously. Jim Yarbrough is 62-58 in four
years as head coach of the program, and he hopes that his team will carry over
the strong play it exhibited at the end of last season.
NICHOLLS STATE - The Colonels lost a very good player in Ryan Bathie (15.8
ppg), but there is still talent in place for J.P. Piper, entering his sixth
season as head coach. Last season, Nicholls State ranked in the top 25
nationally in a few categories, such as field goal percentage, scoring defense
and steals per game. Three starters are back for the squad, including Anatoly
Bose. The 6-6 junior swingman poured in 15.0 ppg last season, and he may be
able to increase that average as the clear go-to guy in Bathie's absence. Fred
Hunter enjoyed an impressive freshman campaign that saw him net 10.6 ppg, and
the 6-5 guard figures to be better as a sophomore. Kellan Carter didn't do
much scoring as a sophomore, but the guard registered 2.4 spg and is tenacious
defensively. Clearly, Piper has some talent to work with.
NORTHWESTERN STATE - Mike McConathy is 156-155 in 10 years as head coach at
Northwestern State. Last season was not one of McConathy's memorable
campaign's however, as he finished 11-20 overall and 3-13 in Southland play.
But expect improvement by the Demons, as eight of the 12 players from a year
ago are back in place. The best of the bunch is Damon Jones, a 6-4 senior
guard who brings back 12.2 ppg. Michael McConathy is small at 5-9 and 155
pounds, but the fact that he recorded 8.0 ppg and 4.0 apg rules out nepotism.
In the middle, William Mosley gets the most out of his 6-7 frame, as he ripped
down 8.5 rpg as a freshman a year ago. Mosley's offensive development could be
viewed as the key to the Demons' success. If he can score in double figures,
after netting 6.3 ppg a year ago, Northwestern State could see a turnaround in
regard to its record.
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN - The last two seasons have been memorable for Stephen F.
Austin and veteran head coach Danny Kaspar. The Lumberjacks have won back-to-
back regular season Southland titles and captured their first-ever conference
tournament crown a year ago. Expectations aren't nearly as high this season,
as Stephen F. Austin has just one starter back in place, and considering the
fact that Eric Bell scored a mere 3.5 ppg, he isn't going to set the world on
fire offensively. The last two SLC Players of the Year, Matt Kingsley and Josh
Alexander, are both gone, and they will be impossible to replace. Coach Kaspar
is used to winning, but his club figures to struggle mightily early on. The
Lumberjacks will get better as the campaign rolls along, but a middle-of-the-
pack finish is the best that fans can hope for.
MCNEESE STATE - Dave Simmons led McNeese State to a 5-11 conference record
last season, and the team finished 11-18 overall. With three starters back in
the fold, the Cowboys figure to be competitive on most nights, but they are
still shy of conference-title contender status. Diego Kapelan is a 6-2 senior
guard who scored 11.7 ppg a year ago and figures to be a go-to guy offensively
this season. He will get some help from P.J. Alawoya (7.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg), a 6-5
forward, and C.J. Collins, a 6-4 guard who dished out 3.2 apg last season.
McNeese State was a tremendous defensive team in 2008-09, ranking 12th
nationally by limiting foes to 38.9 percent shooting from the floor. A similar
showing will be needed just to give the team a shot at reaching the conference
tournament.
CENTRAL ARKANSAS - Of the three starters welcomed back by the Bears, two
averaged double figures in scoring. Mitch Rueter scored 11.7 ppg in 2008-09,
and Mike Pouncy added 10.1 ppg. While neither has star potential, both figure
to be at least equally productive this season. Chris Brown, a 6-8 forward, is
back after netting 7.9 ppg and pulling down 4.5 rpg as a sophomore. Now a
junior, expect Brown to emerge as a more productive frontline performer. Last
season, Central Arkansas shot 40 percent from the floor, and that lack of
efficiency was a major reason for the 3-13 conference record. Coach Rand
Chappell needs to stress better shot selection if a turnaround is expected.
There isn't a whole lot of reason to be optimistic.
WEST:
TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI - What's not to like about this Texas A&M-Corpus
Christi team? The Islanders went 11-5 in conference play last season, and all
five starters are back. Kevin Palmer is arguably the best player in the
league, as he is coming off a junior campaign that saw him score 18.2 ppg.
Desmond Watt, Justin Reynolds and Shamar Coombs are added just over eight
points per contest a year ago, and while none of the three are stars, it is
the balance that they provide that makes the Islanders so dangerous. One
player to watch is 7-0 center Filip Toncinic, who posted 6.2 ppg and 4.4 rpg
last season. If he can take a step forward, TAMCC will win the conference.
There is plenty of reason to believe Palmer will be in the mix for SLC Player
of the Year honors.
SAM HOUSTON STATE - The Bearcats finished 12-4 in Southland play last season,
good for first place in the West Division. Unfortunately, the team failed to
get the job done in the conference tournament. Of the three returning starters
that are in the fold for 2009-10, two averaged double figures in scoring a
year ago. Corey Allmond tallied 15.3 ppg from his guard position, and most of
the points were generated on three-point shots. Ashton Mitchell, another
guard, pitched in 12.5 ppg, and the fact that he was able to dish out 6.8 apg
is impressive by any standards. Preston Brown scored 9.9 ppg, so we aren't
going out on a limb saying that Brown will score in double figures this
season. Bob Marlin is the second-winningest coach in Southland Conference
history, and he will get the most from his players.
UT-SAN ANTONIO - After posting a mediocre 8-8 league record during the regular
season, the Roadrunners shocked everyone by reached the conference tournament
title game last year, defeating a pair of 12-4 teams in the process. With
three starters back, UT-San Antonio won't sneak up on anyone this season. Omar
Johnson scored 12.6 ppg last season while dishing out 4.2 apg, and he is one
of the better players in the league. As for Devin Gibson, he tallied 12.3 ppg
while also posting three steals per contest. Gibson is just 6-0, but he has
proven capable of pestering larger guards defensively. Josh Bonney didn't do
much from his forward position as a junior, and he will be counted on to
improve significantly as a senior. The Roadrunners recorded more than nine
steals per contest last season to rank among the national leaders, so expect
more of the same in 2009-10.
UT-ARLINGTON - Two years ago, the Mavericks reached their first-ever NCAA
Tournament and set a program record for victories. UT-Arlington had a wealth
of talent back in place, so a 9-7 conference record in 2008-09 and a first-
round exit in the league tournament was bitterly disappointing. So how will
coach Scott Cross and his team respond? Well, there is reason for optimism
considering the return of Marquez Haynes, a 6-3 senior guard who netted 16.5
ppg a year ago. Brandon Long, a 6-1 guard, added 12.7 ppg, and those two
players form one of the better duos in the Southland Conference. Long
struggled mightily with his shooting touch down the stretch, so he is happy to
see the new season arrive. Tommy Moffitt is a solid senior forward who needs
to be a bit more aggressive offensively.
LAMAR - Two years ago, Lamar captured its first conference title in well over
two decades. The program came crashing back to Earth last season, however,
finishing last in the West Division. Considering that only one starter is back
from that team, there is obviously a lack of proven experience for Steve
Roccaforte, the head coach of the program. Justin Nabors scored 11.2 ppg and
pulled down 6.4 rpg off the bench last season as a junior, and the senior
forward will now be asked to take on a more prominent role. He is 6-6, 215
pounds and ready to make a run at All-Southland Conference honors. The lone
returning starter is Ashton Hall, who scored 8.8 ppg from his swing position.
Replacing three double-digit scorers will not be easy, and while Lamar figures
to be competitive, there will almost certainly be more losses than wins.
TEXAS STATE - The Bobcats simply need to play better defense to have any
chance of a respectable finish in the West Division this season. An optimist
will be quick to point out that the team improved its scoring defense by over
seven points per contest last year from the previous season. A realist,
however, realizes that the 77.3 ppg that Texas State permitted in 2008-09 was
still one of the worst marks of any team nationally. Last season, Brandon Bush
and Brent Benson formed a tremendous backcourt duo, combining for over 31
points per contest. Both players are gone and will be missed tremendously.
John Rybak is one of two returning starters, and he brings back 10.0 ppg.
Cameron Johnson, a 6-7 junior, provided 9.5 ppg a year ago. Those two players
are solid, but the overall roster is unimpressive.
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